Executive Summary: 

June wrapped up a spring selling season that came in below its usual pace in both Abbotsford and Greater Chilliwack. Abbotsford saw about 37% fewer sales than its typical 10-year June average, while inventory sat about 28% above that same 10-year norm. Greater Chilliwack followed a similar pattern, with sales down about 40% from its 10-year June average and inventory running about 25% above normal.

With homes piling up faster than buyers are absorbing them, most property types in both markets continually sit in balanced territory that leans toward buyers, giving today's buyers more negotiating room than they have had in several years. Prices have eased modestly from their 2024 and 2025 peaks across detached homes, townhomes and condos. You may have noticed a bounce in prices over the past month or two; that is a normal seasonal pattern, not a new upward trend, and this report explains why below.

Market Conditions: 

Months of Inventory tells you how long it would take to sell everything currently listed at the current sales pace. Zero to five months favours sellers, five to eight is balanced, and eight or more favours buyers.

Almost every property type in both markets currently sits in balanced territory, with detached homes and townhomes closest to tipping back toward sellers, and condos carrying the most breathing room for buyers. Greater Chilliwack condos are the one segment that has crossed fully into buyer's market conditions, at just over eight months of supply.

Current Prices and Trends:

Prices have eased off their recent highs. To give you the most accurate and honest picture of home values, the figures below use a 3-month rolling average. This means we blend 90 days of sales data together to filter out the noise of a single unusually high or low sale, revealing the true temperature of the market.

When we look at these statistically verified trends, the data shows that detached homes in both regions experienced a run-up before pivoting downward. Since their respective peaks, detached home values are down about 9% in Abbotsford and 5% in Greater Chilliwack. Condos in Abbotsford have seen the sharpest adjustment, down roughly 14%.

A note on recent months: You may notice a slight uptick in prices over the last month or two. This is the traditional 'Spring Bounce', a seasonal bump as buyers come out of hibernation. However, with active listings sitting well above the 10-year average, there is too much inventory on the market to support a new, sustained upward trend in prices right now. The broader gravitational pull of the market remains in a correction phase.

Detached Homes

Townhome

Condo

Fixed Vs. Variable Rates:

The Bank of Canada held its key policy rate at 2.25% at its July decision. This marks the sixth hold in a row, as the Bank continues to weigh elevated inflation from global energy prices against an economy that is still finding its footing. This decision keeps the prime rate steady at 4.45% across major lenders.

When it comes to securing a mortgage right now, working with a reputable local mortgage broker or a BC credit union (like Vancity or Prospera) is your best bet for finding safe, accessible rates. Currently, the most competitive five-year variable rates through these local channels sit between 3.35% and 3.75%. For comparison, major banks are offering special five-year variable rates closer to 3.65% or 3.95%.

These variable rates are noticeably below the current five-year fixed rates. Right now, a strong five-year fixed rate through a local BC credit union sits around the 3.99% to 4.54% mark, depending on the lender and whether your mortgage is insured (high ratio) or conventional.

Meanwhile, major banks are posting special five-year fixed offers closer to the 4.59% to 4.89% range.

With the Bank on hold and showing no urgency to move in either direction, variable rate holders are enjoying a rare discount to fixed rates. If payment certainty matters more to you than saving on the initial rate, a five-year fixed is still a reasonable choice. Just be aware that fixed rates track bond yields rather than the Bank's policy rate, meaning they can shift before you lock one in.

Who the Market Favours:

Upsizers

Upsizers are the biggest winners right now. If you are selling a townhome to buy a detached house, the detached market's price drops mean the gap you need to finance has shrunk, and balanced conditions mean you won't be rushed into a bidding war.

First-Time Buyers

Condos and townhomes, the typical entry point for first time buyers, have seen the deepest price pullbacks and carry the most inventory relative to sales of any segment. Paired with variable rates sitting well below fixed, this is one of the more approachable windows for first time buyers we have seen in recent years.

Downsizers

Downsizers face a trickier landscape. Selling a detached home takes longer right now, and you may need to accept a lower price than you hoped, while the townhomes you want to move into haven't dropped in price quite as steeply.

Moving Laterally in the Market

Sideways Movers face a math test. Making a lateral move (like swapping one detached home for another in a different neighborhood) is a double-edged sword right now. On the buying side, homebuyers currently have the luxury of time, browsing at their own pace until the right property comes along. However, on the selling side, you must ensure you have enough equity built up to make the transition. Because your current home will likely sell for less than it would have at the market's peak, you need to verify that your remaining equity is sufficient to clear your existing mortgage, cover closing costs, and fund your next down payment without coming up short.

Spotlight - Condo

This month we're spotlighting condos. Abbotsford condos have fallen almost 12% from their March 2025 peak, to an average of about $401,000, the largest pullback of any segment in either market. Greater Chilliwack condos have also softened from their 2024 peak, though a strong run of sales over the past three months pushed the average price up sharply this spring.

Condo sales in Greater Chilliwack are thin in any given month, so a run like that can swing the average considerably and is better read as a seasonal blip than a new direction, especially with inventory there sitting at a buyer's market level of just over eight months of supply. For buyers willing to look at condos in either market, this remains the segment with the most room to negotiate.

Long-term Home Values:

Zooming out, the picture looks very different from the past year alone. Since 2016, average detached home prices have climbed from about $630,000 to roughly $1.17 million in Abbotsford, and from about $458,000 to roughly $912,000 across Greater Chilliwack, gains of more than 80% in both markets over ten years. Short term dips like the one we're in now are a normal part of a market that has still compounded at a healthy pace year after year.

Compared to 10-year Average:

Sales activity remains well below normal for this time of year. Abbotsford recorded 170 sales in June, about 37% fewer than its 10-year June average of 270. Greater Chilliwack saw 159 sales, about 40% below its 10-year June average of 264. Buyers have not disappeared, but many are taking their time, which is a big part of why inventory keeps building.

Investor Insights:

The rental market is officially moving toward balance. CMHC's mid-year 2026 report shows vacancy rates are rising across the region, particularly in new builds where high-end units are taking much longer to lease. For builders, high costs and weak demand have severely stalled pre-sale condo activity. While this means more choices for renters today, the lack of new housing starts expected between now and 2028 means supply could tighten drastically in a few years, which protects the long-term value of existing rental units.

The current mix of softer prices and elevated inventory means more room to negotiate on purchase price than we have seen in several years, particularly in the condo segment where sellers are competing hardest for buyer attention. With variable mortgage rates running well below fixed and the Bank of Canada on hold, financing costs are also more predictable in the near term than they have been for a while. As always, run the numbers on rent versus carrying costs for any specific property before committing.

The Bigger Picture:

The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.25% in mid-July, marking its sixth consecutive hold. While headline inflation recently ticked up to 3.2% (driven almost entirely by global energy shocks and gasoline), core inflation remains much more manageable at around 2.2%. The Bank is walking a tightrope: balancing a sluggish economy and rising unemployment against sticky housing and food costs. For now, the 'wait-and-see' approach is keeping a lid on housing demand.

Worth Keeping in Mind:

Inventory levels in both markets are meaningfully above normal, which tends to favour buyers on price and negotiating terms. At the same time, don't read too much into any single month, especially in smaller segments like Greater Chilliwack condos, where a handful of sales can swing the average considerably.

If you are weighing a move, the fundamentals here, long term value growth, more negotiating room today, and a rate environment that has stabilized, support making a decision based on your own timeline rather than trying to perfectly time the market.

Ready to Talk Numbers:

Whether you are thinking about downsizing, helping your kids get into the market, or just want to know what your home is worth in this split market, I am here to help you think it through. No pressure, just honest numbers.