DEFINITIONS & METHODOLOGY

In this report, "Chilliwack" refers to Greater Chilliwack — East Chilliwack, Sardis, and Chilliwack proper combined into a single market using sales-weighted averages. This gives a fuller picture of the Chilliwack market than any single sub-area on its own.

All prices are 3-month rolling averages, weighted by sales volume, to smooth out the natural month-to-month noise in a market of this size. Months of Inventory (MOI), the key measure of whether conditions favour buyers or sellers, is calculated the same way: average active listings divided by average monthly sales over the three most recent complete months.

Market temperature is read as: 0 to 5 months of inventory, a Seller's Market. 5 to 8 months, a Balanced Market. Over 8 months, a Buyer's Market.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

September was one of the quietest months the Fraser Valley has seen in years. Abbotsford recorded 111 residential sales, the lowest September total in records going back to 2005 and 43% below the 10-year September average. Greater Chilliwack recorded 137 sales, 33% below its 10-year average for the month.

Buyers hold the advantage across most of the market. Abbotsford detached homes and condos in both cities are in buyer's market territory. Townhomes in both cities and detached homes in Greater Chilliwack read as balanced, but with sales this low, even those segments feel buyer-friendly on the ground.

Prices continued to ease. Detached homes averaged about $1,016,000 in Abbotsford and $836,000 in Greater Chilliwack over the past three months, the lowest level for both since early 2023. Compared with the level they held through 2024 and early 2025, Abbotsford detached values are down roughly 10% to 14% and Greater Chilliwack detached values roughly 6% to 9%, with most of that decline coming this summer. Greater Chilliwack condos are the one segment holding steady.

There is some good news for sellers: fewer homes are competing for attention. Active listings are down about 17% from a year ago in Abbotsford and about 10% in Greater Chilliwack, although both remain above the 10-year average for September.

On rates, the Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25% on September 2, so variable rates are unchanged. Fixed rates are moving the other way. Bond yields climbed through September on higher oil prices and global inflation concerns, and several major lenders raised their fixed rates in the last week of the month.

MARKET GAUGE

Months of inventory tells us how long it would take to sell every home currently listed at today's pace of sales. Under 5 months favours sellers, 5 to 8 months is balanced, and over 8 months favours buyers.

Abbotsford. Detached homes (9.5 months) and condos (8.5 months) are firmly in buyer's market territory, and only about 11% of listed detached homes are selling each month. Townhomes are balanced at 7.3 months, but sit toward the upper end of that range.

Greater Chilliwack. Detached homes (7.7 months) and townhomes (7.1 months) read as balanced, while condos (8.6 months) favour buyers. A word of caution here: balanced on paper does not mean balanced in practice. With September sales running a third below normal, buyers have time and choice, and the market has more of a buyer's market feel than the numbers alone suggest. Sellers should expect negotiation.

Inventory levels rose from June to September in both cities, which is normal as the market slows after spring. Compared with this time last year, conditions are very similar. Abbotsford detached is actually slightly tighter than a year ago (9.5 months versus 10.2) because fewer homes are listed.

WHAT PRICES ARE DOING

Abbotsford. Prices are softening across all three property types. Detached homes held steady at around $1.18 million through 2024 and early 2025. They are now down about 11% over the past year and roughly 10% to 14% from that earlier level, with most of the decline coming this summer. Townhomes are down about 9% from their 2024 to early 2025 average. Condos have been easing more gradually for longer and are down about 14%.

Greater Chilliwack. Detached homes held at around $905,000 to $935,000 through 2024 and early 2025, and were only about 3% below that range in the first half of this year. They are now down about 6% over the past year and roughly 6% to 9% from that earlier level, again mostly this summer. Townhomes are down about 8%. Condos are the exception, holding close to their 2024 to early 2025 level at about $399,000.

These local trends match what the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is seeing region-wide, where the August benchmark price for detached homes was down 8.4% from a year earlier. Monthly averages can swing based on which homes happen to sell, and sales this summer were thin. That is why we show a range and focus on the direction over several months rather than any single month.

UNDERSTANDING INTEREST RATES: FIXED VS VARIABLE

Many people assume the Bank of Canada sets all mortgage rates. It does not, and right now the difference matters.

Variable rates follow the Bank of Canada. The Bank's overnight rate sets the prime rate, and variable mortgages are priced off prime. The Bank held at 2.25% on September 2, its seventh straight hold, which keeps prime at 4.45%. The best 5-year variable rates are currently around 3.4% to 3.6%.

Fixed rates follow the bond market. Lenders price 5-year fixed mortgages off the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. That yield rose from about 3.45% in early September to about 3.7% by month end, its highest level in a year, as higher oil prices tied to renewed U.S. and Iran tensions raised inflation worries around the world. Lenders responded by raising fixed rates, and the best 5-year fixed rates now start around 4.1% to 4.3%, with most major banks higher.

What it means for a payment. On a $500,000 mortgage over 25 years, a 4.34% fixed rate costs about $2,720 a month, while a 3.60% variable rate costs about $2,520. That $200 monthly gap is the price of certainty. Bond markets are now pricing in the possibility of rate increases over the next year, which is a real risk for variable borrowers, although many economists feel inflation is not running hot enough to justify that. The Bank's next decision is October 28, when it will also release new forecasts.

WHO THE MARKET IS BEST FOR

DOWNSIZERS AND EMPTY NESTERS

This is a mixed picture, and it depends on what you are moving into. In Abbotsford, detached values have come down by more than $150,000 from their 2024 to early 2025 level, while townhomes are down about $60,000. That means the gap between selling your detached home and buying a townhome is roughly $100,000 smaller than it was, so there is less left over after the move. Condos have fallen too, and the detached-to-condo gap has narrowed by a similar amount.

In Greater Chilliwack, detached homes are down about $85,000 and townhomes about $50,000, so the detached-to-townhome gap is about $30,000 smaller. Moving into a condo is less favourable, because condos have held their value while detached prices have not, leaving about $70,000 less in your pocket than a year or two ago.

The upside is that you are buying in the same soft market you are selling in. Downsizers who price realistically and plan the timing of both sides of the move can still come out well, especially those who bought years ago and carry significant equity.

UPSIZERS

Abbotsford townhome owners moving up are the best positioned group in this report. The step up to a detached home costs roughly $100,000 less than it did through 2024 and early 2025, and detached buyers have real negotiating room in a buyer's market. The catch is that you are selling in a balanced market at 7.3 months, so your townhome still needs to be priced right.

In Greater Chilliwack, the step from townhome to detached is about $30,000 smaller than it was. Condo owners moving up benefit most, since their condo has held its value while the step up to a detached home is about $70,000 smaller.

FIRST-TIME BUYERS

Selection is good and sellers are negotiating. Abbotsford condos average about $388,000, down about 14% from their 2024 to early 2025 average, and townhomes about $626,000. In Greater Chilliwack, condos have held steady at about $399,000, so there is less of a discount but more price stability.

The challenges are real. Fixed rates rose in late September, which makes qualifying harder, and the job market cooled in August. Rents in Abbotsford have also fallen about 10% over the past year, so the pressure to buy is lower than it has been. Buyers who are ready should consider getting a pre-approval with a rate hold now, which protects them if fixed rates keep climbing while they shop.

A FEW THINGS WORTH WATCHING

Fixed rates may rise further if bond yields stay high, and the October 28 Bank of Canada decision will set the tone for the rest of the year. With sales volumes this low, a handful of unusual sales can move monthly averages more than usual. Listings also tend to drop in November and December as sellers wait for spring, which can briefly tighten conditions. Finally, higher energy prices and a softer job market are worth watching for their effect on buyer confidence.

SPOTLIGHT A SEGMENT: ABBOTSFORD DETACHED HOMES

Abbotsford detached homes are the clearest buyer's market in this report. Only 47 detached homes sold in September, about 40% below the 10-year September average of 79. With 485 active listings, there are 9.5 months of inventory, and the three-month average price of about $1,016,000 is the lowest since early 2023.

For buyers who have been waiting for a detached home in Abbotsford, this is the most negotiating power they have had in several years. For sellers, there is a silver lining: there are about 110 fewer competing detached listings than a year ago (485 versus 596). Homes that are priced to today's market, not last year's, are the ones that sell.

STABILITY TREND

Over the past two years, Abbotsford detached prices held fairly steady near $1.18 million through early 2025, with a brief bump that spring. They dipped in the fall of 2025, recovered partway in early 2026, and then declined steadily through this summer. Greater Chilliwack has been more stable, holding in a range of roughly $870,000 to $955,000 for most of the period, with a brief high in spring 2025, before slipping below it in August and September. Both cities are now at their lowest level in this two-year window.

WEALTH TREND

The recent softening is real, but it sits on top of a decade of strong growth. From 2015 to 2025, the average detached price grew about 9.1% per year in Abbotsford, 8.7% per year in Sardis, and 10.0% per year in Chilliwack. An Abbotsford homeowner who bought at the 2015 average of about $488,000 was looking at an average of about $1,166,000 in 2025, still more than double, even after the correction.

All three markets peaked in 2022. Long-term owners carry substantial equity, while those who bought near the 2022 high may be at or below their purchase price today. Over the most recent five years (2020 to 2025), growth has averaged closer to 6% per year in all three areas.

INVESTOR INSIGHTS: RATE SENSITIVITY & MARKET DYNAMICS

Rents are falling, but may be finding a floor. The average asking rent in Abbotsford was $1,772 in August, down 10.5% from a year earlier, making it the most affordable rental market in B.C. That said, August saw a 1.6% monthly increase, the largest one-month gain in over a year. Across B.C., asking rents are down 4.7% from a year ago, the 26th straight month of declines. The purpose-built vacancy rate in Abbotsford-Mission was 2.8% in CMHC's most recent survey, which points to a market with adequate supply. B.C. has also capped the 2027 allowable rent increase at 2.2%.

The new supply pipeline has nearly stalled. Presale launches across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley remain at very low levels, with only 42 townhomes released across three projects in July, according to MLA Canada. Housing starts in Abbotsford-Mission are down about 48% so far this year compared with 2025. Fewer homes started today means fewer completions two to four years from now, which supports the longer-term case for rental demand.

Population growth has slowed sharply. B.C. added only about 8,000 people over the past year, growth of 0.1%, the slowest of any province. That helps explain softer rents in the near term.

What the numbers look like. As an illustrative price point, not a specific listing, consider a detached home with a secondary suite in the $1,000,000 range. With 20% down and a 25-year amortization at about 4.3% fixed, the mortgage payment is roughly $4,360 a month. A suite renting for $1,600 to $1,800 covers about 40% of that payment before taxes and insurance. That works well as a mortgage helper for an owner who lives in the home, but it does not produce positive cash flow for a pure investor at today's rents. Rate sensitivity matters too: every 0.25% change in rate moves that payment by about $110 a month.

The bottom line for investors. Buyers today face less competition and more negotiating room, and the stalled construction pipeline supports the longer-term outlook. In the near term, falling rents, slow population growth and rising fixed rates mean the numbers need to work on their own, without counting on quick appreciation.

MACRO OUTLOOK

Canadian inflation held at 3.0% in August, pushed up mainly by energy costs, while the Bank of Canada's preferred core measures sit near 2%. The economy lost 42,000 jobs in August, although the unemployment rate held steady at 6.4%. Oil prices remain elevated because of renewed U.S. and Iran tensions affecting shipping in the Persian Gulf, which is the main reason bond yields and fixed mortgage rates moved higher in September.

The Bank of Canada has signalled it expects to hold rates steady but is watching inflation risks closely. Its October 28 announcement will include updated forecasts and is the key event for the rest of the year. For the Fraser Valley, we expect the fall and early winter to stay quiet, with buyers holding the advantage in most segments and prices drifting rather than dropping sharply, unless rates change direction.